Friday, October 8, 2010

2010-2011 Projections Now Available

Statistical Rankings now available for 2010-2011. Only $9 to help you dominate your draft.

1. Use these ranking to optimize player value
2. Use the team optimizer to balance your team during the draft to find need areas.
3. I used this strategy to turn my keeper team from worst to first in 3 seasons.

Click on the link above or to the right to go to PayPal to download the file. Excel 2003 or later compatible.



I used this statistical approach to a Fantasy Basketball Keeper League to turn
an existing last place team into a first place team in 3 years. This approach
helped me balance my team between categories and optimize my drafts to focus on drafting undervalued talent. It helped me identify David Lee, Gerald Wallace as excellent waiver wire pickups long before they became fantasy staples.

Fantasy Basketball Theory

This graph shows the expected player value vs rankings. Players significantly above average will be ranked higher than those who are below average. The problem is most popular rankings are heavily weighted on Points scored and tend to ignore many of the other categories.

Since most Fantasy NBA leagues use an 8 category scoring system, player value must be determined by looking at how each player performs in each category vs the average player. Taking that into account, traditional rankings now have a wide margin of error.

This graph below shows how those rankings show some players to be significantly over valued on others significantly under valued. This information can be used to optimize your draft and optimize your team to balance out each of the 8 scoring categories.

This overvaluing comes from people overweighting Points scored in the rankings. When looking at the leverage plot below it shows the best player in the league will score 2 times as many points as the average player. While the best blocker in the league will produce 5 times as many blocks as the average.
This means you will need to draft many high scorers to be competitive in Points but you could draft 2 of the top 10 blockers and dominate that category week in and week out