Deron Williams for Amare Stoudemire?

About a week into my fantasy league season... Right now I'm in 3rd place with 47.5 points (8 category, 10 team rotisserie league). One thing is evident, blocks and rebounds have been scarce in the league. Teams with big men have been inundated with trade offers. Here's what my team looks like, using the spreadsheet:

Current Team

My first thought is my team for sure could use some big men. I'm a little low on rebounds (0.96 times the average) but blocks weren't as bad as I thought (1.09 times the average). I'm definitely relying on Bogut a LOT.

I was offered a trade of Amare Stoudamire for Deron Williams. Amare would help me a ton on rebounds, and help in blocks too I would think. So I took out Williams and plugged in Stoudemire, and got this:

Minus Deron Williams, adding Amare Stoudemire

If you compare my Team Average Total with Amare (1.11) versus with Deron Williams (1.14), it looks like my team is better off staying with Deron Williams. The major drop in assists and 3's didn't make up for the gain in rebounds and blocks.

Since this trade would allow me more positional flexibility (I have a ton of guards), I added Aaron Brooks to the mix (who I barely play, but would play more if Williams was traded). I got this:

Adding Aaron Brooks to the mix since he would get more playing time

My team average total is still lower (1.12) than if I hadn't made the trade (1.14). Looks like Deron Williams is too valuable for me to deal.

This exercise has taught me a couple of valuable things: 1. Don't make the trade! 2. Bogut was a GREAT draft pick (and PLEASE stay healthy!) 3. I should really focus on FG and FT percentage instead of blocks.

I'm going to stay away from the meat market right now for shot blocking big men and concentrate on other categories. 

Post Draft Sale $1

If you missed out on my rankings and draft analyzer, you can still use the Optimizer to:
1. Find your team's strengths and weaknesses
2. Use it to help identify Free Agents to balance your team.

Now Only $1 (a $9 value)

2010-2011 Projections Now Available

Statistical Rankings now available for 2010-2011. Only $9 to help you dominate your draft.
1. Use these ranking to optimize player value
2. Use the team optimizer to balance your team during the draft to find need areas.
3. I used this strategy to turn my keeper team from worst to first in 3 seasons.

Click on the link above or to the right to go to PayPal to download the file. Excel 2003 or later compatible.

Enjoy!

Introduction

I used this statistical approach to a Fantasy Basketball Keeper League to turn
an existing last place team into a first place team in 3 years. This approach
helped me balance my team between categories and optimize my drafts to focus on drafting undervalued talent. It helped me identify David Lee, Gerald Wallace as excellent waiver wire pickups long before they became fantasy staples.

Fantasy Basketball Theory

This graph shows the expected player value vs rankings. Players significantly above average will be ranked higher than those who are below average. The problem is most popular rankings are heavily weighted on Points scored and tend to ignore many of the other categories.


















Since most Fantasy NBA leagues use an 8 category scoring system, player value must be determined by looking at how each player performs in each category vs the average player. Taking that into account, traditional rankings now have a wide margin of error.



















This graph below shows how those rankings show some players to be significantly over valued on others significantly under valued. This information can be used to optimize your draft and optimize your team to balance out each of the 8 scoring categories.


















This overvaluing comes from people overweighting Points scored in the rankings. When looking at the leverage plot below it shows the best player in the league will score 2 times as many points as the average player. While the best blocker in the league will produce 5 times as many blocks as the average.
This means you will need to draft many high scorers to be competitive in Points but you could draft 2 of the top 10 blockers and dominate that category week in and week out

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2009 Final Fantasy Basketball Rankings

Below are the Final 2009 Basketball Fantasy Rankings.
This data is based on the acutal 2009-2010 statistics, that being said you may see some surprising names in the Top 20.
That is because Fantasy Value is different than NBA Value.
Even though he is getting older, people tend to underestimate the value of Marcus Camby who, even while injured, still produced 2 times as many Rebounds and 3 times as many Blocks as the average player.

Rank		Total Value	FG	FT	3pt	Pts	Reb	Asst	Steals	Blocks
1	LeBron James	12.89	1.10	1.00	1.74	1.95	1.32	2.59	1.60	1.60
2	Dwight Howard	12.26	1.33	0.77	0.00	1.30	2.57	0.57	0.96	4.75
3	Kevin Durant	11.65	1.04	1.17	1.73	2.13	1.48	0.92	1.44	1.75
4	Jason Kidd	11.58	0.92	1.05	2.37	0.71	1.06	2.88	1.86	0.73
5	Josh Smith	11.29	1.10	0.80	0.00	1.10	1.67	1.36	1.67	3.59
6	Dwyane Wade	11.18	1.04	0.99	0.98	1.77	0.89	1.99	1.82	1.71
7	Stephen Curry	10.67	1.01	1.15	2.24	1.21	0.85	1.87	1.95	0.40
8	Andre Iguodala	10.48	0.96	0.95	1.27	1.21	1.26	1.87	1.81	1.15
9	Steve Nash	10.12	1.10	1.22	1.67	1.15	0.64	3.54	0.54	0.25
10	Deron Williams	10.04	1.02	1.04	1.29	1.23	0.72	3.17	1.23	0.33
11	Stephen Jackson	9.85	0.92	1.01	1.74	1.44	0.95	1.19	1.69	0.90
12	Rajon Rondo	9.77	1.11	0.81	0.23	0.96	0.85	3.15	2.43	0.23
13	Gerald Wallace	9.64	1.05	1.01	0.70	1.20	1.81	0.64	1.50	1.73
14	Aaron Brooks	9.63	0.94	1.07	2.82	1.39	0.51	1.72	0.89	0.29
15	Baron Davis	9.57	0.88	1.07	1.11	0.99	0.63	2.38	1.62	0.90
16	Dirk Nowitzki	9.56	1.05	1.19	0.69	1.75	1.47	0.87	0.90	1.65
17	Brook Lopez	9.51	1.09	1.06	0.00	1.33	1.68	0.74	0.71	2.90
18	Marcus Camby	9.44	1.03	0.83	0.03	0.48	2.07	0.74	1.22	3.04
19	Kobe Bryant	9.33	0.99	1.05	1.34	1.70	0.93	1.45	1.45	0.42
20	Danny Granger	9.22	0.93	1.10	2.13	1.29	0.81	0.68	1.21	1.06
21	Andrew Bogut	9.21	1.13	0.82	0.00	0.95	1.66	0.50	0.50	3.65
22	Danilo Gallinari	9.20	0.92	1.06	2.51	1.05	0.94	0.54	0.96	1.21
23	Brandon Jennings	9.18	0.81	1.06	1.96	1.10	0.67	1.87	1.35	0.38
24	Tim Duncan	9.17	1.13	0.94	0.03	1.20	1.87	0.98	0.58	2.44
25	Andrea Bargnani	9.02	1.02	1.01	1.63	1.19	1.17	0.37	0.32	2.31
26	Russell Westbrook	9.01	0.91	1.01	0.31	1.14	0.95	2.59	1.39	0.71
27	David Lee	9.01	1.19	1.06	0.00	1.42	2.25	1.17	1.09	0.83
28	Trevor Ariza	8.97	0.86	0.84	1.83	0.93	0.96	1.10	1.62	0.83
29	Channing Frye	8.96	0.98	1.05	2.32	0.78	1.01	0.45	0.82	1.54
30	Jeff Green	8.95	0.99	0.96	1.40	1.07	1.16	0.53	1.34	1.50
31	Manu Ginobili	8.91	0.96	1.13	1.78	1.07	0.67	1.47	1.32	0.50
32	Chauncey Billups	8.85	0.91	1.18	2.12	1.23	0.54	1.62	1.05	0.19
33	Rudy Gay	8.81	1.01	0.98	0.89	1.35	1.12	0.61	1.52	1.33
34	Monta Ellis	8.72	0.98	0.98	1.04	1.41	0.61	1.35	1.84	0.52
35	Troy Murphy	8.68	1.03	1.04	1.73	0.91	1.75	0.60	0.92	0.71
36	Pau Gasol	8.66	1.17	1.03	0.00	1.03	1.74	0.87	0.48	2.36
37	Joe Johnson	8.66	1.00	1.06	1.74	1.40	0.84	1.47	1.05	0.10
38	Nene Hilario	8.65	1.28	0.92	0.00	0.98	1.49	0.81	1.48	1.71
39	Lamar Odom	8.61	1.01	0.90	0.78	0.76	1.90	1.06	0.96	1.23
40	Al Horford	8.53	1.20	1.03	0.01	0.99	1.90	0.75	0.76	1.90
41	Samuel Dalembert	8.51	1.19	0.95	0.00	0.58	1.86	0.25	0.54	3.15
42	Mo Williams	8.50	0.96	1.16	2.14	0.94	0.49	1.46	0.90	0.44
43	O.J. Mayo	8.43	1.00	1.05	1.83	1.24	0.74	0.96	1.26	0.35
44	Carlos Boozer	8.39	1.22	0.96	0.00	1.31	2.08	0.98	1.08	0.75
45	Marc Gasol	8.34	1.26	0.87	0.00	0.87	1.52	0.66	0.89	2.27
46	Amar'e Stoudemire	8.33	1.21	1.00	0.01	1.64	1.74	0.33	0.67	1.73
47	Zach Randolph	8.31	1.06	1.01	0.20	1.45	2.26	0.59	1.03	0.71
48	Carmelo Anthony	8.26	1.00	1.08	0.80	1.68	1.08	0.88	1.13	0.63
49	David West	8.26	1.10	1.12	0.09	1.33	1.44	0.95	0.98	1.25
50	Jason Richardson	8.24	1.03	0.96	2.12	1.07	0.96	0.57	0.85	0.69
51	Tyreke Evans	8.20	1.00	0.97	0.49	1.25	0.90	1.64	1.40	0.54
52	Al Jefferson	8.16	1.08	0.88	0.00	1.12	1.67	0.54	0.81	2.04
53	Chris Bosh	8.15	1.13	1.04	0.11	1.45	1.80	0.66	0.55	1.42
54	Brendan Haywood	8.13	1.22	0.81	0.00	0.61	1.70	0.17	0.33	3.29
55	Raymond Felton	8.13	1.00	0.99	0.81	0.84	0.68	1.77	1.58	0.46
56	Ray Allen	8.09	1.04	1.19	1.96	1.13	0.60	0.83	0.82	0.52
57	Jason Terry	8.07	0.95	1.13	1.83	1.11	0.33	1.16	1.21	0.35
58	Paul Pierce	8.05	1.03	1.11	1.47	1.12	0.74	0.87	1.08	0.65
59	John Salmons	8.05	0.96	1.08	1.59	1.08	0.64	0.89	1.27	0.54
60	Boris Diaw	8.00	1.05	1.00	0.89	0.80	1.01	1.29	0.77	1.19
61	Jamal Crawford	7.98	0.98	1.11	2.20	1.23	0.48	0.95	0.78	0.25
62	Emeka Okafor	7.94	1.15	0.73	0.00	0.73	1.76	0.22	0.69	2.65
63	Rashard Lewis	7.90	0.95	1.05	2.27	0.87	0.76	0.43	1.00	0.58
64	Mehmet Okur	7.89	1.00	1.07	1.11	0.85	1.22	0.47	0.49	1.69
65	Chris Kaman	7.84	1.07	0.97	0.00	1.22	1.67	0.48	0.48	1.96
66	Roy Hibbert	7.76	1.08	0.98	0.04	0.82	1.10	0.63	0.39	2.73
67	Mike Conley	7.66	0.97	0.97	1.11	0.83	0.45	1.69	1.40	0.25
68	Al Harrington	7.66	0.95	0.98	1.89	1.10	0.96	0.44	0.80	0.54
69	Paul Millsap	7.64	1.17	0.90	0.01	0.82	1.33	0.52	0.82	2.06
70	Carlos Delfino	7.63	0.89	1.02	1.81	0.71	0.94	0.80	1.03	0.44
71	Andray Blatche	7.63	1.04	0.97	0.18	0.99	1.21	0.68	1.09	1.48
72	Derrick Rose	7.53	1.06	1.00	0.22	1.40	0.70	1.86	0.73	0.56
73	Kirk Hinrich	7.49	0.89	0.98	1.40	0.70	0.62	1.31	1.09	0.50
74	Ron Artest	7.46	0.90	0.89	1.42	0.73	0.79	0.93	1.36	0.44
75	Beno Udrih	7.41	1.07	1.09	1.01	0.88	0.52	1.48	1.14	0.21
76	Luol Deng	7.40	1.01	0.99	0.43	1.06	1.22	0.57	0.85	1.27
77	Vince Carter	7.39	0.93	1.09	1.61	1.07	0.70	0.94	0.68	0.38
78	Chris Paul	7.36	1.07	1.10	0.70	0.73	0.45	1.91	1.23	0.17
79	Joakim Noah	7.35	1.10	0.97	0.00	0.59	1.67	0.52	0.41	2.08
80	Caron Butler	7.33	0.93	1.09	0.57	1.04	1.09	0.62	1.49	0.50
81	Chris Andersen	7.32	1.23	0.90	0.00	0.39	1.15	0.13	0.54	2.98
82	LaMarcus Aldridge	7.32	1.08	0.98	0.07	1.20	1.49	0.64	0.86	1.00
83	Brandon Roy	7.24	1.03	1.01	0.98	1.21	0.68	1.21	0.78	0.33
84	Elton Brand	7.11	1.05	0.96	0.00	0.86	1.09	0.43	1.05	1.67
85	Kevin Garnett	7.09	1.13	1.09	0.01	0.86	1.20	0.73	0.87	1.19
86	Michael Beasley	7.02	0.98	1.04	0.38	1.00	1.18	0.40	1.03	1.02
87	Andre Miller	7.02	0.97	1.07	0.22	0.99	0.63	1.77	1.19	0.19
88	Andrew Bynum	7.01	1.24	0.96	0.00	0.84	1.28	0.27	0.45	1.96
89	Charlie Villanueva	6.99	0.96	1.06	1.34	0.80	0.87	0.21	0.62	1.15
90	Luis Scola	6.99	1.12	1.01	0.01	1.15	1.67	0.67	0.81	0.54
91	Mike Bibby	6.95	0.91	1.12	1.70	0.63	0.44	1.23	0.86	0.06
92	Carl Landry	6.78	1.17	1.05	0.01	1.16	1.11	0.26	0.71	1.31
93	Anderson Varejao	6.71	1.25	0.86	0.01	0.56	1.37	0.35	0.91	1.40
94	George Hill	6.70	1.04	1.00	1.01	0.83	0.49	0.90	0.89	0.54
95	Louis Williams	6.66	1.02	1.07	0.94	0.78	0.44	1.06	1.03	0.31
96	Shawn Marion	6.62	1.11	0.98	0.04	0.78	1.13	0.43	0.89	1.27
97	Wilson Chandler	6.47	1.04	1.05	0.54	0.86	0.83	0.55	0.59	1.02
98	Marvin Williams	6.47	0.99	1.06	0.54	0.71	0.99	0.37	0.85	0.96
99	Marcus Thornton	6.46	0.98	1.06	1.58	0.91	0.50	0.45	0.74	0.23
100	Corey Maggette	5.89	1.12	1.09	0.18	1.20	0.89	0.68	0.65	0.08